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李超

地理科学学院

导航

  • 个人资料
  • 个人概况
  • 研究方向
  • 招生与培养
  • 开授课程
  • 科研项目
  • 学术成果
  • 荣誉及奖励

个人资料

  • 部门： 地理科学学院
  • 性别： 男
  • 专业技术职务： 教授
  • 毕业院校： Texas A&M University
  • 学位： 博士
  • 学历： 研究生
  • 联系电话： 021-54341247
  • 电子邮箱： cli@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 办公地址： 闵行校区河口海岸楼A713
  • 通讯地址： 上海市闵行区东川路500号河口海岸楼A713
  • 邮编： 200241
  • 传真：

教育经历

2010.01-2013.05，美国Texas A&M University，博士

2006.09-2009.07，清华大学，硕士

2002.09-2006.07，兰州大学，学士

工作经历

2024.01至今，华东师范大学，地理科学学院，教授

2018.10-2023.12，华东师范大学，地理科学学院，研究员

2016.08-2018.09，维多利亚大学（加拿大），太平洋气候影响研究中心，项目研究员

2013.07-2016.07，斯坦福卡耐基科学院（美国），全球生态所，博士后

个人简介

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chao-Li-292

社会兼职

  • IPCC第六次气候变化评估报告贡献作者

  • 国家第四次气候变化评估报告主要作者

  • 国际水文学会统计水文中国委员会委员

  • 上海市灾害防御协会理事

  • 上海市应急管理局应急管理专家库成员


期刊编辑：

  • Earth's Future，Associate Editor，Sep 2022 - Dec 2026

  • Advances in Climate Change Research，Young Editorial Member，Aug 2022 - Aug 2026


研究领域

  • 极端天气与气候

  • 气候变化检测与归因

  • 统计气候与水文


课题组公众号：GWEX2018（Research Group on Weather and Climate EXtremes at ECNU since 2018）









会议信息

统计气候学领域盛会，每三年举办一次，第15届国际统计气候学大会（15th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology）将于2024年6月24-28日在法国历史文化名城图卢兹（Toulouse）召开。

大会联结气候学、统计学、大数据、人工智能多学科，涵盖气候变化、极端天气与气候事件、影响的监测、检测归因、预测预估等议题，开放培训最新气候变化检测归因方法和软件使用。

摘要投稿开放至2024年2月11日（延期至2月25日）

大会网站：http://www.meteo.fr/cic/meetings/2024/IMSC/ 

欢迎投稿和关注专题7:

Long-term detection and attribution and emergent constraints on future climate projections

Conveners: Chao Li (ECNU, China) and Dáithí Stone (NIWA, New Zealand)

Detection and attribution and the identification and application of emergent constraints are important areas in the study of climate change and have recently also attracted the attention of the statistics community. Climate change detection and attribution refers to a set of statistical tools to relate observed changes to external forcings, specifically to anthropogenic influence. Emergent constraints refer to statistical tools used to produce observationally constrained projections of future change based on relationships between historical and future simulated change. While both issues can be viewed in different ways, most studies use linear regression frameworks. The problem formulation per se seems straight forward in both cases, but the challenges lie in the high dimensionality of the problem and the relatively large number of unknown quantities that need to be estimated in the context of limited observations.

We invite presentations on new methodological and computational developments, software implementations, and comparisons between methods. We further invite presentations describing and/or applying detection and attribution or emergent constraint methods in any area of scientific study.












招生与培养

开授课程

本科生必修课：《全球环境变化》（双语）

本科生必修课：《地球系统科学-气候与气候变化》

研究生选修课：《极端天气与气候统计分析》


科研项目

  1. 国家自然科学基金面上项目，中国不同重现期极端降水对气候变暖的响应差异及其机理研究，4207050196，2021.01.01-2024.12.31，项目负责人

  2. 科技部重点研发计划项目，中国区域极端温度事件的检测归因，2018YFC1507702，2018.12.01-2021.11.31，课题负责人

  3. 科技部重点研发计划项目，影响全球季风区气候变化预估不确定性的关键因子和物理机理研究，2020YFA0608901，2020.12.01-2025.11.31，研究骨干

学术成果

第一或通讯作者论文（下划线标记课题组研究生或博士后，星号*标记通讯作者）

  1. Li, C.*, Q. Sun, J. Wang, Y. Liang, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and T. Li, 2024: Constraining projected changes in rare intense precipitation events across global land regions. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105605（模式气候敏感度导致的区域极端降水预估不确定性和约束）

  2. Qiao, S., D. Chen, M. He, C. Li*, C. Hu, J. Zhao, J.Cheng, and G. Feng, 2023: Was the February 2022 persistent heavy precipitation event over South China enhanced by anthropogenic climate change? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0258.1

  3. Li, M., C. Li*, Z. Jiang*, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, 2022: Deciphering China's complex pattern of summer precipitation trends. Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002797（中国夏季降水长期趋势“南涝北旱”格局的检测归因）

  4. Liu, Y., C. Li*, Y. Sun, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, Z. Jiang, and F. Zheng, 2021: The January 2021 cold air outbreak: is there a human fingerprint? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0143.1

  5. Li, C.*, Z. Wang, F. W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2021: Improving the estimation of human climate influence by selecting appropriate forcing simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095500（一种具有普遍适用性的气候变化“最优指纹”检测归因方案优化配制策略，入选GRL亮点论文，https://eos.org/editor-highlights/framework-for-fingerprinting-human-influence-on-climate）

  6. Wang, J., C. Li*, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, G. Li, Z. Jiang, P. Zhai, Y. Sun, Z. Li, and Q. Yue, 2021: On the optimal design of field significance test for changes in climate extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092831

  7. Li, C.*, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, G. Li, Y. Sun, and M. Wehner, 2021: Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 climate models. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1（小概率极端降水和极端温度未来将如何变化，被IPCC AR6主报告《决策者摘要》以关键图件采用，https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf，hot temperature extremes and extreme precipitation in Figure SPM.6；被该报告《第11章，气候变暖中的极端天气与气候》用于绘制多个图表，包括图11.6、图11.7、图11.12、图11.15、表11.4、表11.5，详见https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf；ESI高被引和热点论文）

  8. Li, C.*, Y. Sun, F. W. Zwiers, D. Wang, X. Zhang, G. Chen, and H. Wu, 2020: Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in China with human-induced climate change. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLID-19-0492.1

  9. Li, C.*, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, G. Chen, J. LV, G. Li, J. Norris, Y. Tan, Y. Sun, and M. Liu, 2019: Larger increases in more extreme local precipitation extremes as climate warms. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019Gl082908（越极端的降水对气候变暖的响应越敏感）

  10. Li, C. X. Zhang*, F. W. Zwiers, and G. Li, 2019: How much information is required to well constrain local estimates of future precipitation extremes. Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001001（估计极端降水对气候变暖的响应究竟需要多少数据）

  11. Li, C.* Y. Fang, K. Calderia, X. Zhang, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and A. M. Michalak, 2018: Widespread persistent changes to temperature extremes occurred earlier than predicted. Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19288-z

  12. Li, C.* X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiwers, Y. Fang, and A. M. Michalak: 2017: Recent very hot summers in northern hemispheric land areas measured by wet bulb globe temperature will be the norm within 20 years. Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000639

  13. Li, C.* E. Sinha, D. E. Horton, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and A. M. Michalak, 2014: Joint bias correction of temperature and precipitation in climate model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022514

  14. Li, C.* and V. P. Singh, 2014: A multimodel regression-sampling algorithm for generating rich monthly streamflow scenarios. Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013969

  15. Li, C.*, V. P. Singh, and A. K. Mishra, 2013: Monthly river flow simulation with a joint conditional density estimation network. Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20146

  16. Li, C.*, V. P. Singh, and A. K. Mishra, 2013: A bivariate mixed distribution with a heavy-tailed component and its application to single-site daily rainfall simulation. Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1002/.wrcr.20063

  17. Li, C.*, V. P. Singh, and A. K. Mishra, 2012: Entropy theory-based criterion for hydrometric network evaluation and design: maximum information minimum redundancy. Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011251

  18. Li, C.*, V. P. Singh, and A. K. Mishra, 2012: Simulation the entire range of daily precipitation using a hybrid probability distribution. Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011446  


其他合作论文

  1. Wang, J., P. Zhai, and C. Li, 2024: Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations. Weather and Climate Extremes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100665

  2. Cao, C., X. Guan, C. Li, Z. Gao, and T. Gu, 2024: Anthropogenic contribution to the unprecedented 2022 midsummer extreme high-temperature event in southern China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0199.1  

  3. Wei, J., B. Wang, J. Luo, C. Li, and C. Yuan, 2023: Synoptic characteristics of heatwave events in Australia during austral summer of 1950/1951-2019/2020. International Journal of Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8166

  4. Ma, Y., Z. Hu, C. Li, T. Feng, X. Meng, and W. Dong, 2023: Anthropogenic climate change enhances the July 2021 super-heavy rainfall event in Central China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0141.1

  5. Wang, Z., Y. Sun, X. Zhang, T. Li, C. Li, S. Min, and T. Hu, 2023: Human influence on historical heaviest precipitation events in the Yangtz River Valley. Environmental Research Letters，https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb563

  6. Cui, T., Y. Li, L. Yang, Y. Nan, K. Li, M. Tudaji, H. Hu, D. Long, M. Shahid, A. Mubeen, Z. He, B. Yong, H. Lu, C. Li, G. Ni, C. Hu, and F. Tian, 2023: Non-monotonic changes in in Asian Water Towers' streamflow at increasing warming levels. Nature Communications, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6

  7. Xu, Z., L. Chen, Y. Zhang, G. Han, Q. Chen, Z. Chu, Y. Zhang, C. Li, Y. Yang, and X. Wang, 2022, Meteorological drivers of atmospheric mercury seasonality in the temperate norther hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100120

  8. Li, Q., B. Shen, J. Huang, C. Li, Z. Song, L. Chao, W. Sun, Y. Yang, B. Jiao, Z. Guo, L. Liao, X. Li, C. Sun, W. Li, B. Huang, W. Dong, and P. Jones, 2022: Different climate response persistence causes warming trend unevenness at continental scales. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01313-9 

  9. Li, M., Q. Sun, M. A. Lovino, S. Ali, M. Islam, T. Li, C. Li, and Z. Jiang, 2022: Non-uniform changes in different daily precipitation events in the contiguous United States. Weather and Climate Extremes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100417 

  10. Qian, W., X. Sun, and C. Li, 2022: Spatial effects on extreme precipitation in the coastal areas of southeastern China during the raining season. International Journal of Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7524

  11. Gong, H., C. Li, and Y. Zhou, 2021: Emerging global ocean deoxygenation across the 21th century. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095370（AGU Press Release Highlight， https://news.agu.org/press-release/climate-change-has-likely-begun-to-suffocate-the-worlds-fisheries）

  12. Liu, W., F. Sun, Y. Feng, C. Li, J. Chen, Y. Sang, and Q. Zhang, 2021: Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels. Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f

  13. Liu, J., S. Qiao, C. Li, S. Tang, D. Chen, and G. Fneg, 2021: Anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme precipitation in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in HadGEM3-A-N216. Atmospheric Science Letters, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1036

  14. Qian, G., Q. Li, C. Li, H. Li, X. Wang, W. Dong, and P. Jones, 2021: A novel statistical decomposition of the historical change in global mean surface temperature. Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abea34

  15. Cui, T., C. Li, and F. Tian, 2021: Evaluation of temperature and precipitation simulations in CMIP6 models over the Tibetan Plateau. Earth and Space Science, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001620

  16. Dong, S., Y. Sun, C. Li, X. Zhang, S. Min, and Y. Kim, 2021: Attribution of extreme precipitation with updated observations and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1017.1

  17. Norris, J., G. Chen, and C. Li, 2020: Dynamic amplification of subtropical extreme precipitation in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087200

  18. Dong, S., Y. Sun, and C. Li, 2020: Detection of human influence on precipitation extremes in Asia. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0371.1

  19. Tan, Y., F. W. Zwiers, S. Yang, C. Li, and K. Deng, 2020: The role of circulation and its change in present and future atmospheric rivers over western North America. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0134.1

  20. Sun, Y., T. Hu, X. Zhang, C. Li, C. Lu, G. Ren, and Z. Jiang, 2020: Contribution of global warming and urbanization to changes in temperature extremes in eastern China. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084281

  21. Wang, Y., H. Wu, J. Lin, J. Zhu, W. Zhang, and C. Li, 2019: Phytoplankton blooms off a high turbidity estuary: a case study in the Changejiang river estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015343 

  22. Xu, R., H. Hu, F. Tian, C. Li, and M. Y. Ali Khan, 2019: Projected climate change impacts on future streamflow over the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River. Global and Planetary Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.01.012

  23. Zhou, Y., N. Zhang, C. Li, Y. Liu, and P. Huang, 2018: Decreased takeoff performance of aircraft due to climate change. Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2335-7

  24. Lu, Y., H. Hu, C. Li, and F. Tian, 2018: Increasing compound events of extreme hot and dry days during growing seasons of wheat and maize in China. Scientific Reports: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34215-y

  25. Chen, J., C. Li, F. P. Brissette, H. Chen, M. Wang, G. R. C. Essou, 2018: Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.03.040

  26. Liu, Z., C. Li, P. Zhou, and X. Chen, 2016: A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China. Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35105

 

非同行评议文章

  1. A Short Tutorial on the Statistics of Hierarchical Emergent Constraint. 

       


荣誉及奖励

2015年，美国斯坦福卡耐基科学院芭芭拉-麦克林托克博士后奖学金

2013年，美国Texas A&M University农业与生态工程系国际留学生成就奖